Fantasy Baseball: Outfield Free Agents - Johnny Damon

One player that has had their value continuously looked at over the last two weeks is Johnny Damon. With his performance in the last three games of the post-season, general managers are starting to pay closer attention. The problem with Damon is that he simply does not represent the same player of just a few years ago. Even harder to evaluate is the ballpark impact of playing in New York and how it enhanced his numbers.

Damon was a solid find for many fantasy owners in 2009. He provided solid value in the ninth and 10th rounds of a draft without the pressure of needing to be a number one or two outfielder. Some would argue, though, that even an ADP in ESPN leagues of 90 or so was too high given his history. It will, though, be what has to be paid to obtain him in 2010.

The outfielder produced numbers better than his 2008 stats in every power category. He hit seven more home runs and drove in 10 more as well. He did so at the expense of 20 points of average and better than 50 percent reduction in stolen bases. Did the appetizing short-porch in left make a difference? It is certainly a valid argument.

Damon has hit 20 or fewer home runs in five of his last seven seasons as a baseline. In three of his last five seasons, the number has been 17 or less and he has been more limited in terms of total games played. The outfielder has become a 140-game player as opposed to 150+.

Fantasy owners care about offense only, and one of Damon's key areas is speed. Damon has not cracked 30 steals since 2003, and this year he had just 12. Is it an anomaly or is it the reality of a player towards the end of his career? It is more likely that 20 steals will be at the higher end of his range in the same way that 20 home runs will be the high water mark for him outside of Yankee Stadium. The fact is, he has a career mark of hitting a home run every 40 at-bats. In 2009, it was one every 22 at-bats. That number just will not hold.

All this in mind, the question as to if he can even continue to play the outfield will need to be addressed. Teams are running on his weak throwing arm at will, limiting him to left field or DH. With setting his max in terms of power at 20 home runs, he does not fit the profile for a full-time DH.

The bottom line is this: Damon is not going to replicate his 2009 numbers in 2010, and drafting him will mean paying a higher price than the return you will receive. Is .280/18/70 worth a sixth to eighth round selection? Not without 30 steals. To put it in perspective, 50 outfielders hit 17 or more home runs this season; 41 drove in more than 70 runs; and 45 stole more than Damon's 12 bases.

The numbers can be found in the latter portion of fantasy drafts. Let him be someone else's gamble while you find his production seven-rounds later.