Those of you that have followed updates on this blog have noticed there is a certain infatuation with Nolan Reimold taking place here. Last night, Michael Sylvie and myself spoke in a Twitter conversation regarding the outfielder. Ultimate, the point of emphasis regarding my pre-spring training man crush on Reimold stems from the lineup surrounding the young star.
This is now a team that provides some star power to go with tremendous upside in their younger players. From a fantasy perspective, it is a lineup that can provide owners with production in a variety of ways at various points in a draft.
Brian Roberts is continually one of the earlier second basemen off the board. This is as much because of how thin the position is as it is anything else. With an ADP of 41 in ESPN leagues in 2009, Roberts delivered a .283 average to go with 16 home runs and 30 steals. While he may not get on base as much as many owners would like, he still remains in the upper-tier of the position. Projection: .285/18/80 with 30 steals, Rd 4-6
Adam Jones will see an increase in value this season as well. After being picked in the 14th round last season, Jones will likely make a move into the round seven-to-ten area based on rough estimates of what he could have done in a full season. The outfielder will begin working out at the end of the month and expects to be ready for the start of the season. He will not likely hit in the number two spot based on movements and trades, but that should help his power numbers. Projection: .275/27/90, Rd 5-7
Nick Markakis is simply steady, and remains one of the better second-half hitters in baseball. Owners simply need to expect him to start slow, as statistically May is his worst month. If they do not, they tend to sell too low on the outfielder despite spending an early-round pick. Hitting in the three spot again, he should hit just north of 20 home runs while continuing to drive in near 100 and hit close to .300. Projection: .305/20/105, Rd 3-5
While Matt Wieters was not the .300 hitter that he was projected to be last season, he was far from a flop. Perhaps his projections were only a year off. Wieters steps in to 2010 with the starting job firmly secured and enough experience to be able to relax. He will go earlier in drafts than he should, again, but expect him to deliver more this year. The price you will need to pay, though, will leave you short somewhere else. Projection: .290/20/75, Rd 7-10
Then there is Luke Scott. Scott is older than you might think. He will turn 32 next season, putting him closer to the south side of his prime years than not. Still, he has increased his power during each season where he has played more or less full time. Even with injuries last year, Scott managed to hit 25 home runs in 128 games. He will struggle against left-handed pitching, but he will also have the luxury of a first base and DH role for 2010. In the late rounds, you will be able to add some power through bringing him into your lineup. Projection: .255/30/80, Rd 18+
Rounding back to Reimold, it is evident that there are many that feel he has the potential to be something special this season. Bill James projects Reimold with 29 home runs and 13 stolen bases to go with an average hovering around .300. Some might call this overly optimistic. In some cases it is. Reimold will require the opportunity to hit this way, but he will also need surrounding help. The major question will be where he hits, and that will alter the projections slightly. The bet here is that he is more inclined to hit seven than he is to hit two. Projection: .285/25/95, Rd 18+
After these six, there is still some deeper potential for AL-only owners specifically. Felix Pie came on at the end of last season and was able to provide fantasy value for those that dealt with the Jones, Scott, and Reimold injuries. Ty Wiggington gives owners some positional flexibility, and it is likely that he has a starting job somewhere in Baltimore on Opening Day.
The Orioles have a question mark at third base, but there is help not too far away in the minors. They could make a play for Adrian Beltre, or they could look for a stop gap until Josh Bell will be able to fill in. Bell was part of the George Sherrill deal, and he proved he was worthy of the acquisition. Between high-A and AA last season, Bell hit hitting .295 with 20 home runs and 76 RBI. He still needs some more time, but could make an impact during the second half of 2010 should he produce in the same manner early.
Baltimore has not long been a fantasy hot-bed when it comes to producing stars for owners. That is starting to change on offense now and will in pitching over the course of the next two years. Keep these players in mind as the calendar turns to next year.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Outfield Free Agents - Johnny Damon
One player that has had their value continuously looked at over the last two weeks is Johnny Damon. With his performance in the last three games of the post-season, general managers are starting to pay closer attention. The problem with Damon is that he simply does not represent the same player of just a few years ago. Even harder to evaluate is the ballpark impact of playing in New York and how it enhanced his numbers.
Damon was a solid find for many fantasy owners in 2009. He provided solid value in the ninth and 10th rounds of a draft without the pressure of needing to be a number one or two outfielder. Some would argue, though, that even an ADP in ESPN leagues of 90 or so was too high given his history. It will, though, be what has to be paid to obtain him in 2010.
The outfielder produced numbers better than his 2008 stats in every power category. He hit seven more home runs and drove in 10 more as well. He did so at the expense of 20 points of average and better than 50 percent reduction in stolen bases. Did the appetizing short-porch in left make a difference? It is certainly a valid argument.
Damon has hit 20 or fewer home runs in five of his last seven seasons as a baseline. In three of his last five seasons, the number has been 17 or less and he has been more limited in terms of total games played. The outfielder has become a 140-game player as opposed to 150+.
Fantasy owners care about offense only, and one of Damon's key areas is speed. Damon has not cracked 30 steals since 2003, and this year he had just 12. Is it an anomaly or is it the reality of a player towards the end of his career? It is more likely that 20 steals will be at the higher end of his range in the same way that 20 home runs will be the high water mark for him outside of Yankee Stadium. The fact is, he has a career mark of hitting a home run every 40 at-bats. In 2009, it was one every 22 at-bats. That number just will not hold.
All this in mind, the question as to if he can even continue to play the outfield will need to be addressed. Teams are running on his weak throwing arm at will, limiting him to left field or DH. With setting his max in terms of power at 20 home runs, he does not fit the profile for a full-time DH.
The bottom line is this: Damon is not going to replicate his 2009 numbers in 2010, and drafting him will mean paying a higher price than the return you will receive. Is .280/18/70 worth a sixth to eighth round selection? Not without 30 steals. To put it in perspective, 50 outfielders hit 17 or more home runs this season; 41 drove in more than 70 runs; and 45 stole more than Damon's 12 bases.
The numbers can be found in the latter portion of fantasy drafts. Let him be someone else's gamble while you find his production seven-rounds later.
Damon was a solid find for many fantasy owners in 2009. He provided solid value in the ninth and 10th rounds of a draft without the pressure of needing to be a number one or two outfielder. Some would argue, though, that even an ADP in ESPN leagues of 90 or so was too high given his history. It will, though, be what has to be paid to obtain him in 2010.
The outfielder produced numbers better than his 2008 stats in every power category. He hit seven more home runs and drove in 10 more as well. He did so at the expense of 20 points of average and better than 50 percent reduction in stolen bases. Did the appetizing short-porch in left make a difference? It is certainly a valid argument.
Damon has hit 20 or fewer home runs in five of his last seven seasons as a baseline. In three of his last five seasons, the number has been 17 or less and he has been more limited in terms of total games played. The outfielder has become a 140-game player as opposed to 150+.
Fantasy owners care about offense only, and one of Damon's key areas is speed. Damon has not cracked 30 steals since 2003, and this year he had just 12. Is it an anomaly or is it the reality of a player towards the end of his career? It is more likely that 20 steals will be at the higher end of his range in the same way that 20 home runs will be the high water mark for him outside of Yankee Stadium. The fact is, he has a career mark of hitting a home run every 40 at-bats. In 2009, it was one every 22 at-bats. That number just will not hold.
All this in mind, the question as to if he can even continue to play the outfield will need to be addressed. Teams are running on his weak throwing arm at will, limiting him to left field or DH. With setting his max in terms of power at 20 home runs, he does not fit the profile for a full-time DH.
The bottom line is this: Damon is not going to replicate his 2009 numbers in 2010, and drafting him will mean paying a higher price than the return you will receive. Is .280/18/70 worth a sixth to eighth round selection? Not without 30 steals. To put it in perspective, 50 outfielders hit 17 or more home runs this season; 41 drove in more than 70 runs; and 45 stole more than Damon's 12 bases.
The numbers can be found in the latter portion of fantasy drafts. Let him be someone else's gamble while you find his production seven-rounds later.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Outfield Free Agents - Rick Ankiel and Marlon Byrd
Two particular free agents provide a general level of intrigue. For many teams, the two are possibilities. Neither will necessarily command huge dollars in the open market, but they could provide some of the better return. The two players in questions are Rick Ankiel and Marlon Byrd.
Ankiel was a player that this space hyped up based on his performance in 2008. He adjusted to the role of being an outfielder very well, posting 25 home runs and showing that he certainly had the hitting ability to play at that level. This came after hitting 32 home runs in 102 AAA games in 2007. The Cardinals likely felt that they had something here.
In 2009, it seemed to fall apart. Ankiel was slowed by injuries and his production, even prior to them, was lackluster at best. Ending with 11 home runs is not what owners were expecting. The .231 average only made the feeling worse. For many owners, he was cut long before the fantasy playoffs were even thought of. Rather than being a boost to an offense as a late-round pickup, Ankiel was a burden. By the time many finally cut the cord, he had been unplayable for a while.
From a comparison basis, looking at 2008 against 2009 is easy. Ankiel played largely the same amount of games and recorded the same number of at-bats. The analytical question to ask is what happened between the two seasons. For that, the surface numbers only tell part of the story.
Many will look at the drop in power and average as evidence that he likely just could not keep up the pace; that pitchers had figured him out. Perhaps this is a piece to the puzzle, but pitchers did not change their overall approach to him. Ankiel saw the same pitches at about the same frequency in 2009 as he did in 2008.
Ankiel did not walk as much, seeing his total walk percentage drop by 33 percent over 2008. He struck out more frequently, but not materially so and not more overall than he did in the prior year. Even his BABIP was relatively consistent. All this in mind, the biggest piece to point out is that his average was not necessarily luck related. It was a calculated result based on the consistency in some of his other numbers.
The power, though, could come back. His home run-to-fly ball ratio was half of the number in 2008. Just from making a little better contact, that should bounce back at least some. There are a few key ratios that will underscore the next point: Ankiel hit more balls on the ground and popped out to the infield more often.
Why does this happen? Sometimes that is just bad luck, but the theory for this space is that there is something else in his numbers. That comes to his contact rates. Ankiel swung and made contact with balls in the strike zone at the exact same rate as he did in 2008. The difference? His numbers based on pitches outside of the zone. Ankiel swung at pitches that were not strikes 13 percent more often.
While he did not make contact with them at the same rate, it explains the slight jump in his strike out percentage as well as some of the increases in weaker contact.
Ankiel is going to make fantasy owners and real general managers look smart next season. He is due to come back from this given the appropriate opportunity. Ankiel will either be a late-round flyer to build some outfield depth or a free agent pickup in most leagues. That becomes especially true when you figure the demand for .230 hitters with only 11 home runs will not be too great.
If you have a chance on him after round 18 or 19, look to make that move.
Byrd is a different creature. He was more of a part-time player in 2007 that saw a more expanded role in 2008 before being given full at-bats in 2009. A player like this is slightly harder to read, because there is certainly question as to what statistics are more real.
In this case, Byrd likely saw a drop in average more because of playing full-time than anything else. His 15 point drop is relatively explainable in that regard, and .283 is still nothing to be ashamed of. With a BABIP still above the league average at .315, he is certainly a threat to continue between .285 and .290 heading in to next season. The number is off from the .370 of 2007 and the .332 of 2008, but the playing time makes up a majority of the difference.
The other aspect for Byrd is that he was able to maintain these statistics despite having pitchers change their approach to him. As a starter, pitchers saw him more frequently and adjusted their games based on the information being accumulated. Byrd saw fastballs 10 percent less often, but was the victim of more curveballs and changeups. Based on the continued level of production, he adjusted to these changes well.
One thing we did see him do was change his approach at the plate. Byrd hit 20 home runs this season, doubling his 2008 total. He did so at the expense of being more patient at the plate. This patience was not necessarily harming his contact rates, as they were largely the same across all aspects. The change was swinging at more pitches earlier in the count. Byrd swung at first-pitch strikes 10 percent more often than in 2008.
This likely also couples with the adjustment pitchers made in throwing him fewer fastballs. If Byrd expected fastballs early, he was trying to jump on the first good one he saw. We will likely see a slight change back away from swinging that early, but it will not swing the pendulum all the way back in the other direction.
It likely will not harm his power numbers, as he still should be swinging enough to generate close to 20 home runs again, regardless of the park. The only difference we saw overall in Byrd were more flyballs and they left the park more often. That, realistically, is a good thing for fantasy owners.
Byrd is another outfielder that should be viewed as a good depth option. A line of .285/20/90 with 10 steals is solid for a fourth or fifth outfielder. He will be a starter somewhere, and the question is only on the team that will take the chance. His gap power and ability to adjust will make a savvy owner grateful they selected him in the later rounds of a draft.
Ankiel was a player that this space hyped up based on his performance in 2008. He adjusted to the role of being an outfielder very well, posting 25 home runs and showing that he certainly had the hitting ability to play at that level. This came after hitting 32 home runs in 102 AAA games in 2007. The Cardinals likely felt that they had something here.
In 2009, it seemed to fall apart. Ankiel was slowed by injuries and his production, even prior to them, was lackluster at best. Ending with 11 home runs is not what owners were expecting. The .231 average only made the feeling worse. For many owners, he was cut long before the fantasy playoffs were even thought of. Rather than being a boost to an offense as a late-round pickup, Ankiel was a burden. By the time many finally cut the cord, he had been unplayable for a while.
From a comparison basis, looking at 2008 against 2009 is easy. Ankiel played largely the same amount of games and recorded the same number of at-bats. The analytical question to ask is what happened between the two seasons. For that, the surface numbers only tell part of the story.
Many will look at the drop in power and average as evidence that he likely just could not keep up the pace; that pitchers had figured him out. Perhaps this is a piece to the puzzle, but pitchers did not change their overall approach to him. Ankiel saw the same pitches at about the same frequency in 2009 as he did in 2008.
Ankiel did not walk as much, seeing his total walk percentage drop by 33 percent over 2008. He struck out more frequently, but not materially so and not more overall than he did in the prior year. Even his BABIP was relatively consistent. All this in mind, the biggest piece to point out is that his average was not necessarily luck related. It was a calculated result based on the consistency in some of his other numbers.
The power, though, could come back. His home run-to-fly ball ratio was half of the number in 2008. Just from making a little better contact, that should bounce back at least some. There are a few key ratios that will underscore the next point: Ankiel hit more balls on the ground and popped out to the infield more often.
Why does this happen? Sometimes that is just bad luck, but the theory for this space is that there is something else in his numbers. That comes to his contact rates. Ankiel swung and made contact with balls in the strike zone at the exact same rate as he did in 2008. The difference? His numbers based on pitches outside of the zone. Ankiel swung at pitches that were not strikes 13 percent more often.
While he did not make contact with them at the same rate, it explains the slight jump in his strike out percentage as well as some of the increases in weaker contact.
Ankiel is going to make fantasy owners and real general managers look smart next season. He is due to come back from this given the appropriate opportunity. Ankiel will either be a late-round flyer to build some outfield depth or a free agent pickup in most leagues. That becomes especially true when you figure the demand for .230 hitters with only 11 home runs will not be too great.
If you have a chance on him after round 18 or 19, look to make that move.
Byrd is a different creature. He was more of a part-time player in 2007 that saw a more expanded role in 2008 before being given full at-bats in 2009. A player like this is slightly harder to read, because there is certainly question as to what statistics are more real.
In this case, Byrd likely saw a drop in average more because of playing full-time than anything else. His 15 point drop is relatively explainable in that regard, and .283 is still nothing to be ashamed of. With a BABIP still above the league average at .315, he is certainly a threat to continue between .285 and .290 heading in to next season. The number is off from the .370 of 2007 and the .332 of 2008, but the playing time makes up a majority of the difference.
The other aspect for Byrd is that he was able to maintain these statistics despite having pitchers change their approach to him. As a starter, pitchers saw him more frequently and adjusted their games based on the information being accumulated. Byrd saw fastballs 10 percent less often, but was the victim of more curveballs and changeups. Based on the continued level of production, he adjusted to these changes well.
One thing we did see him do was change his approach at the plate. Byrd hit 20 home runs this season, doubling his 2008 total. He did so at the expense of being more patient at the plate. This patience was not necessarily harming his contact rates, as they were largely the same across all aspects. The change was swinging at more pitches earlier in the count. Byrd swung at first-pitch strikes 10 percent more often than in 2008.
This likely also couples with the adjustment pitchers made in throwing him fewer fastballs. If Byrd expected fastballs early, he was trying to jump on the first good one he saw. We will likely see a slight change back away from swinging that early, but it will not swing the pendulum all the way back in the other direction.
It likely will not harm his power numbers, as he still should be swinging enough to generate close to 20 home runs again, regardless of the park. The only difference we saw overall in Byrd were more flyballs and they left the park more often. That, realistically, is a good thing for fantasy owners.
Byrd is another outfielder that should be viewed as a good depth option. A line of .285/20/90 with 10 steals is solid for a fourth or fifth outfielder. He will be a starter somewhere, and the question is only on the team that will take the chance. His gap power and ability to adjust will make a savvy owner grateful they selected him in the later rounds of a draft.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Outfield Free Agents, Pt. 2
The outfield is littered with free agents that have the opportunity to make a big impact to a lineup. They just come with plenty of questions. Whether it is from an injury, age, or anomalies in their year-to-year statistics, this group of free agents can be described with only the “high-risk, high-reward” terminology.
Take Bobby Abreu as an example. Abreu waited out the market last season, eventually signing a deal on the cheap with the Angels. Even the Angels only ended up looking at him because no one else seemed ready to put up the contract. Abreu over-estimated his value in the market, completely mis-reading what many teams were looking to spend on a 36-year-old outfielder.
After a solid 2009 campaign that showed him light up the Red Sox in the ALDS, Abreu likely feels he is in line for another solid pay day. While not a .300 hitter during his years in the American League, he continues to hit north of .285 every season and has stolen 20 or more bases each year since 1999. That number is 30 or greater in four of his last six years.
While the power numbers have slipped, Abreu still has found a way to drive in more than 100 runs in each year since 2003 and has a career OBP of over .400. That number has not suffered in the last three seasons. For many managers, he is hard not to like because of these numbers. At 37 come next year, there will be questions regarding his ability to remain this consistent.
Fantasy owners should treat Abreu as a top-15 American League outfielder should he remain on this side, and as a top-35 outfielder overall. Abreu is not a name that will win you leagues, but he is one that will serve you well as a number two or three outfielder. Keep him in mind as middle-rounds are approached.
Sticking with the Angels, there is another outfielder that will be able to test free agency. At just 34, at least according to documents that can be found, Vladimir Guerrero should be in line for another two or three-year contract by most standards. For fantasy owners and professional owners alike, the question will come down to what you believe is real.
Guerrero suffered through an injury plagued season, playing in just 100 games. This, though, is not the first season that there has been an issue with his knees or back. It is simply the first season where it has come to a head. Guerrero seems to always be on the verge of missing a substantial amount of time during the season. The question when it comes to drafting him is if it happens again this season.
As a result of missing games, Guerrero’s homerun totals dropped through the floor, but he has not hit 30 home runs since 2006. Since hitting .329 that season, his average has dropped in each successive year, as have his RBI totals. His value for any team at this stage of his career is only as a designated hitter, which limits where he can go.
Given the wear and tear on his body, fantasy managers should let someone else take the risk here. Guerrero at 25 home runs is replaceable. His average is no longer elite enough to keep him in the upper-tier of outfielders in his own league, let alone across baseball. He needs to be someone else’s problem next year.
On the younger end of the scale is Xavier Nady, but he has issues of his own. Nady is just 31 years old, but he has already had multiple arm surgeries. After just seven games in 2009, Nady had Tommy John surgery that will likely keep him out of action for at least the first half of 2010. That in mind, he will be a free-agent add that many owners will want to take advantage of after the break, especially for those struggling offensively.
Nady can hit. He has improved his power numbers every year since 2005, putting up 25 home runs in 2008. That said, his issue is health. In not one season has he played more than 130 games in any season outside of last year. That will likely drive many teams away. Between his ability to get on the field and his fragility when he does, he makes a risk in terms of fantasy and real-world baseball.
Look for a team to grab him as an extra bat with very few expectations for this season. His value will be in 2011 more than it will be in 2010. No team will be relying on him as a starter, and fantasy owners need to appreciate that when it comes to his draft value in the coming year.
One outfielder that will have age called in to question is Jermaine Dye. For Dye, it was like he forgot how to hit in the second half of the season. After posting 20 home runs and a .302 average before the All-Star break, Dye hit just .179 with seven home runs in the second half of the season. The White Sox have basically decided that it is time to cut ties with the outfielder and go in another direction.
Dye may not be the .290 hitter that he was in 2008, but he is also not the .250 hitter that was seen in 2009. Realistically, Dye is a player on the back nine of his career. In fact, he likely has already played through 16. Still, his power numbers will make him useful. If Dye did not have a BABIP of .269 this season, he likely ends up with another 30 home run season. His career BABIP number, even with this season taken into account is still .300.
The biggest difference in terms of overall numbers for Dye came in the fact he hit more grounders than line drives in 2009. His fly ball numbers were the same, as were his home run to fly ball ratio. His contact numbers were actually better overall and he walked more frequently.
Why is all of this important? Simple. Someone is going to give him a chance for another year or two. The question only comes as to if he can continue to play the outfield or he needs to DH. The cost part of the equation will be the major determinant as to where he ends up.
Because of this ability to hit, he will continue to have fantasy relevance. In the American League, owners should like him more than if he were to sign with a National League team. Where he is getting older, any chance that he would have to rest his legs is going to help his production. Another 30 home run season with a .275 average and more than 90 RBI should be expected in a decent lineup. There are certainly teams that will take his production levels. He has hit his current division well enough that all teams there should take note.
Take Bobby Abreu as an example. Abreu waited out the market last season, eventually signing a deal on the cheap with the Angels. Even the Angels only ended up looking at him because no one else seemed ready to put up the contract. Abreu over-estimated his value in the market, completely mis-reading what many teams were looking to spend on a 36-year-old outfielder.
After a solid 2009 campaign that showed him light up the Red Sox in the ALDS, Abreu likely feels he is in line for another solid pay day. While not a .300 hitter during his years in the American League, he continues to hit north of .285 every season and has stolen 20 or more bases each year since 1999. That number is 30 or greater in four of his last six years.
While the power numbers have slipped, Abreu still has found a way to drive in more than 100 runs in each year since 2003 and has a career OBP of over .400. That number has not suffered in the last three seasons. For many managers, he is hard not to like because of these numbers. At 37 come next year, there will be questions regarding his ability to remain this consistent.
Fantasy owners should treat Abreu as a top-15 American League outfielder should he remain on this side, and as a top-35 outfielder overall. Abreu is not a name that will win you leagues, but he is one that will serve you well as a number two or three outfielder. Keep him in mind as middle-rounds are approached.
Sticking with the Angels, there is another outfielder that will be able to test free agency. At just 34, at least according to documents that can be found, Vladimir Guerrero should be in line for another two or three-year contract by most standards. For fantasy owners and professional owners alike, the question will come down to what you believe is real.
Guerrero suffered through an injury plagued season, playing in just 100 games. This, though, is not the first season that there has been an issue with his knees or back. It is simply the first season where it has come to a head. Guerrero seems to always be on the verge of missing a substantial amount of time during the season. The question when it comes to drafting him is if it happens again this season.
As a result of missing games, Guerrero’s homerun totals dropped through the floor, but he has not hit 30 home runs since 2006. Since hitting .329 that season, his average has dropped in each successive year, as have his RBI totals. His value for any team at this stage of his career is only as a designated hitter, which limits where he can go.
Given the wear and tear on his body, fantasy managers should let someone else take the risk here. Guerrero at 25 home runs is replaceable. His average is no longer elite enough to keep him in the upper-tier of outfielders in his own league, let alone across baseball. He needs to be someone else’s problem next year.
On the younger end of the scale is Xavier Nady, but he has issues of his own. Nady is just 31 years old, but he has already had multiple arm surgeries. After just seven games in 2009, Nady had Tommy John surgery that will likely keep him out of action for at least the first half of 2010. That in mind, he will be a free-agent add that many owners will want to take advantage of after the break, especially for those struggling offensively.
Nady can hit. He has improved his power numbers every year since 2005, putting up 25 home runs in 2008. That said, his issue is health. In not one season has he played more than 130 games in any season outside of last year. That will likely drive many teams away. Between his ability to get on the field and his fragility when he does, he makes a risk in terms of fantasy and real-world baseball.
Look for a team to grab him as an extra bat with very few expectations for this season. His value will be in 2011 more than it will be in 2010. No team will be relying on him as a starter, and fantasy owners need to appreciate that when it comes to his draft value in the coming year.
One outfielder that will have age called in to question is Jermaine Dye. For Dye, it was like he forgot how to hit in the second half of the season. After posting 20 home runs and a .302 average before the All-Star break, Dye hit just .179 with seven home runs in the second half of the season. The White Sox have basically decided that it is time to cut ties with the outfielder and go in another direction.
Dye may not be the .290 hitter that he was in 2008, but he is also not the .250 hitter that was seen in 2009. Realistically, Dye is a player on the back nine of his career. In fact, he likely has already played through 16. Still, his power numbers will make him useful. If Dye did not have a BABIP of .269 this season, he likely ends up with another 30 home run season. His career BABIP number, even with this season taken into account is still .300.
The biggest difference in terms of overall numbers for Dye came in the fact he hit more grounders than line drives in 2009. His fly ball numbers were the same, as were his home run to fly ball ratio. His contact numbers were actually better overall and he walked more frequently.
Why is all of this important? Simple. Someone is going to give him a chance for another year or two. The question only comes as to if he can continue to play the outfield or he needs to DH. The cost part of the equation will be the major determinant as to where he ends up.
Because of this ability to hit, he will continue to have fantasy relevance. In the American League, owners should like him more than if he were to sign with a National League team. Where he is getting older, any chance that he would have to rest his legs is going to help his production. Another 30 home run season with a .275 average and more than 90 RBI should be expected in a decent lineup. There are certainly teams that will take his production levels. He has hit his current division well enough that all teams there should take note.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Outfield Free Agents, Pt. 1
Over the course of the off-season, this space is going to look at various free agents whose moves would have an impact on their fantasy statistics and draft position. This is often over-looked, but it has proven to be a difference maker in the past. While not all players will move, the point here will be to look at potential destinations (rumored or pure speculation) and the resulting shifts.
This is not meant to be looked at from a pure mathematical sense. There will be plenty of others who spend their time evaluating the ballpark factors or resulting moves that happen from the first domino to fall. Here, the goal is strictly on potential overall impact. At the end of the day, these are all estimates. Looking at trends of the player, their age, and their ability, the picture should come more clearly in to focus.
Overall, the crop of fantasy outfielders is thinner than one might think. While there will be some big names available, the majority of players will be found to fill roles as much as anything. Certainly interest will be abundant for Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. These two are going the elite of the class, at least among those that do not have an option tied to their contract, and will be the focus in this installment.
Holliday was a prime example as to how a new uniform can really change your opinion about a guy. To say his start in Oakland was atrocious is likely being kind, and there will be many that will argue that he should stay out of the American League entirely as a result. Hold back on that. Holliday was in an Oakland lineup that was at the bottom of the league in terms of production.
April was ugly, and his .240 average shows that. Still, he began to turn a corner in May by hitting .291 with five home runs, followed by a .280 showing in June. Even prior to his trade from Oakland in July, he had raised his average 11 points on the month by going 23-for-68 (.338) in 18 games. The power numbers were not there in the way they were once he landed in St. Louis, but he was slowly proving that he could hit even in that lineup.
This is brought up because it is very likely that Holliday will have some big-name suitors. There should be little doubt that with Johnny Damon headed for free agency and Xavier Nady there as well that the Yankees could be a player. The Red Sox will be dealing with Bay, but are likely to at least kick the tires here as well. The dollar demand will likely rule many teams out, but the Rangers could be players as well.
Should he not re-sign in the National League, temper early projections slightly, but know that in a decent lineup that he should see better production than the early months in Oakland.
Bay is a horse of a different color. Many expected Bay to produce in the power categories in line with where he did this season. Bay proved between 2008 and 2009 that he can perform when the lights are the brightest and under the greatest of scrutiny. These are pieces that cannot be taught, but can certainly be translated across teams. It is why regardless as to where he ends up, he should be looked at as a steady draft pick. Still, owners should have concern over certain areas to his game.
The outfielder struggled dramatically in June and July, posting .230 and .192 averages respectively. Certainly, average is only part of the equation with Bay, but he did only have one home run in 78 July at-bats to go with only five RBI. He drove in 20 runs in June, but hit a home run only once every 25 at-bats for the month. Not the type of production you would want to get out of an early-round selection.
Granted, much of the Boston lineup struggled in July, but Bay was not able to provide any sort of relief. Additionally, his strikeout numbers were way up this season. Bay’s strikeouts as a percent of at-bats increased 33 percent in 2009 over 2008. They were up 18 percent against his 2007 numbers. His walks were up as well, and his plate discipline improved. Still, owners would need to be cognizant of the number if they get penalized for strikeouts.
Just as alarming and noteworthy, though, are Bay’s contact numbers. He made contact 10 percent less often than in most other seasons. He dropped about 5 percent on making contact with pitches in the zone. Does that suggest a rebound? Certainly, but mainly because of historical consistency in these numbers. This past season could have simply been a function of contract-year pressure.
From a drafting perspective, owners should drop Holliday from the end of round one to the middle portion of round two and early round three if he signs with an American League team. Should he stay in the National League, expect him to produce first-round worthy numbers. Owners that get him near pick 15 would be served well. Bay is likely a third or fourth round selection depending on the league. His future team should have little bearing on his draft position.
Outside of these two major names, it is possible that Manny Ramirez finds himself on the market. Ramirez has a player option for $20 million, and would again be a premier free agent. Still, he will be closing in on 40 and did not produce as effectively even after being re-instated. He hit just 10 home runs after the All-Star break while hitting only .255.
Ramirez could see a rebound in production, but there is a greater chance that we have seen his best days. After being a second-round pick this past season, owners need to drop him much further back. With plenty of players being able to produce north of 25 home runs with higher averages, Ramirez will not provide the same bang for the buck.
With what has transpired this season regarding his suspension as well as his production, Ramirez would be wise to exercise the option to stay with the Dodgers. If he does, he remains in a division filled with what certainly appear to be parks that favor pitchers. Unless there is a return to life in the playoffs, your league will need to count OBP in order for him to have a return to being a cornerstone outfielder.
The final major building block-type outfielder is Carl Crawford. Crawford’s contract calls for a club option, and it is a near certainty that Tampa will put it into effect. His impact in moving to another club is, therefore, moot. Crawford remains in the team’s plans at this point, and the trade of Scott Kazmir likely signals the desire Tampa has to get him under a long-term contract. Given the fall-off in production from B.J. Upton and Crawford’s value to the team overall, he will remain in Tampa.
This is not meant to be looked at from a pure mathematical sense. There will be plenty of others who spend their time evaluating the ballpark factors or resulting moves that happen from the first domino to fall. Here, the goal is strictly on potential overall impact. At the end of the day, these are all estimates. Looking at trends of the player, their age, and their ability, the picture should come more clearly in to focus.
Overall, the crop of fantasy outfielders is thinner than one might think. While there will be some big names available, the majority of players will be found to fill roles as much as anything. Certainly interest will be abundant for Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. These two are going the elite of the class, at least among those that do not have an option tied to their contract, and will be the focus in this installment.
Holliday was a prime example as to how a new uniform can really change your opinion about a guy. To say his start in Oakland was atrocious is likely being kind, and there will be many that will argue that he should stay out of the American League entirely as a result. Hold back on that. Holliday was in an Oakland lineup that was at the bottom of the league in terms of production.
April was ugly, and his .240 average shows that. Still, he began to turn a corner in May by hitting .291 with five home runs, followed by a .280 showing in June. Even prior to his trade from Oakland in July, he had raised his average 11 points on the month by going 23-for-68 (.338) in 18 games. The power numbers were not there in the way they were once he landed in St. Louis, but he was slowly proving that he could hit even in that lineup.
This is brought up because it is very likely that Holliday will have some big-name suitors. There should be little doubt that with Johnny Damon headed for free agency and Xavier Nady there as well that the Yankees could be a player. The Red Sox will be dealing with Bay, but are likely to at least kick the tires here as well. The dollar demand will likely rule many teams out, but the Rangers could be players as well.
Should he not re-sign in the National League, temper early projections slightly, but know that in a decent lineup that he should see better production than the early months in Oakland.
Bay is a horse of a different color. Many expected Bay to produce in the power categories in line with where he did this season. Bay proved between 2008 and 2009 that he can perform when the lights are the brightest and under the greatest of scrutiny. These are pieces that cannot be taught, but can certainly be translated across teams. It is why regardless as to where he ends up, he should be looked at as a steady draft pick. Still, owners should have concern over certain areas to his game.
The outfielder struggled dramatically in June and July, posting .230 and .192 averages respectively. Certainly, average is only part of the equation with Bay, but he did only have one home run in 78 July at-bats to go with only five RBI. He drove in 20 runs in June, but hit a home run only once every 25 at-bats for the month. Not the type of production you would want to get out of an early-round selection.
Granted, much of the Boston lineup struggled in July, but Bay was not able to provide any sort of relief. Additionally, his strikeout numbers were way up this season. Bay’s strikeouts as a percent of at-bats increased 33 percent in 2009 over 2008. They were up 18 percent against his 2007 numbers. His walks were up as well, and his plate discipline improved. Still, owners would need to be cognizant of the number if they get penalized for strikeouts.
Just as alarming and noteworthy, though, are Bay’s contact numbers. He made contact 10 percent less often than in most other seasons. He dropped about 5 percent on making contact with pitches in the zone. Does that suggest a rebound? Certainly, but mainly because of historical consistency in these numbers. This past season could have simply been a function of contract-year pressure.
From a drafting perspective, owners should drop Holliday from the end of round one to the middle portion of round two and early round three if he signs with an American League team. Should he stay in the National League, expect him to produce first-round worthy numbers. Owners that get him near pick 15 would be served well. Bay is likely a third or fourth round selection depending on the league. His future team should have little bearing on his draft position.
Outside of these two major names, it is possible that Manny Ramirez finds himself on the market. Ramirez has a player option for $20 million, and would again be a premier free agent. Still, he will be closing in on 40 and did not produce as effectively even after being re-instated. He hit just 10 home runs after the All-Star break while hitting only .255.
Ramirez could see a rebound in production, but there is a greater chance that we have seen his best days. After being a second-round pick this past season, owners need to drop him much further back. With plenty of players being able to produce north of 25 home runs with higher averages, Ramirez will not provide the same bang for the buck.
With what has transpired this season regarding his suspension as well as his production, Ramirez would be wise to exercise the option to stay with the Dodgers. If he does, he remains in a division filled with what certainly appear to be parks that favor pitchers. Unless there is a return to life in the playoffs, your league will need to count OBP in order for him to have a return to being a cornerstone outfielder.
The final major building block-type outfielder is Carl Crawford. Crawford’s contract calls for a club option, and it is a near certainty that Tampa will put it into effect. His impact in moving to another club is, therefore, moot. Crawford remains in the team’s plans at this point, and the trade of Scott Kazmir likely signals the desire Tampa has to get him under a long-term contract. Given the fall-off in production from B.J. Upton and Crawford’s value to the team overall, he will remain in Tampa.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Playoff Lessons
Where leagues have ended, only the few with way too much time on their hands continue to evaluate fantasy baseball players and rosters. Since this falls into that category, we should be good. It might be normal to think that the playoffs show us very little when it comes to the following season. Given the smaller number of teams and the usually set lineups, that can be the case.
Still, the last few post-seasons have given us at least one player to think about heading into the following year. This year, there are candidates to do just that again.
In 2007, Coco Crisp was the centerfielder of choice in Boston. While Jacoby Ellsbury had come on to the scene late, there was certainly skepticism as to if he would be able to stand the pressure of the playoffs. Ellsbury came through, even though there are some that would argue it was largely the failure of Crisp down the stretch. Still, the at-bats he had during the post-season were what allowed Boston the flexibility to deal Crisp this past off-season.
Crisp had been marginalized, and it was proven out that the younger and cheaper Ellsbury could perform the same job. While Crisp stayed on in 2008 and shared the duties, it was only a matter of time before the job was solely Ellsbury’s to have. That has brought a great benefit to fantasy owners that watched it unfold in the fall of 2007.
Last season, there is no doubt that the biggest story was the emergence of pitching in Tampa. David Price may have come up at the end of September, but few could have anticipated the impact he would have in the playoffs. His role in shutting down the Red Sox in the ALCS caused fantasy owners to salivate at the possibility of him in the 2009 rotation.
For Price, 2009 did not unfold the way he would have wanted. After starting the season in the minors, Price was roughed up in a majority of his road outings before settling into a groove during the season’s final month. His youth alone will have owners ready to draft him again in 2010. It is much more likely that he spends a full season in the rotation and could very well experience a similar growth path to the one taken by Ellsbury.
This year, the focus for a player that could break through needs to start in Colorado. The key player that many will look at initially is Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez provided many owners a late-season boost based on some strong August production in terms of power and speed. Still, his numbers were already receiving attention and he is likely to be on many sleeper lists heading in to 2010.
There are a few other names still that did not receive enough recognition over the course of the season that could do so with some strong playoff work. Pitchers Jorge De La Rosa and Ubaldo Jimenez could do just that. De La Rosa was one of the best in the National League from July through September, but his ownership never reflected the strong numbers he posted. While the Rockies will be without him for the Division Series, look for him should the team move on.
Jimenez had strong strikeout totals in 2009, closing in 200 before the season came to an end. He drew game one against the Phillies and would likely get another start in game four or five. Jimenez has the ability to take the next step, and a national stage would do wonders to show those outside of the fantasy world what he can bring to the table.
In Minnesota, there are plenty of unsung heroes that could see their draft stock bettered with a good series against New York. Look first at Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer came off an injury-plagued 2008 season to be an effective replacement for Minnesota after the injury to Justin Morneau. Even with 32 home runs in 2009, he was not able to gain universal acceptance as an option at the corners or in the outfield. Watch out for him.
Do not forget about Francisco Liriano as well. He was a complete disappointment this season, but a good run in the playoffs would make owners forget many of their reasons for cutting him.
It is possible that these players are around only briefly, but there are some options even in New York. Phil Hughes has made a name for himself in the bullpen, but he could make enough of a stance to move in to the rotation. In St. Louis, keep an eye on young outfielder Colby Rasmus. He spent the season with the Cardinals but only hit .251. His power numbers were decent, as he posted 16 home runs and 52 RBI. Rasmus was up and down, having a good month followed by a bad one. The playoffs are a time to shine, and he will have the opportunity.
The fact is, the playoffs make names for players. Those that can show success on the biggest of stages can garner expanded roles in the seasons that follow. Keep an eye out for these players, as they look to gain the same fame taken by those before them.
Still, the last few post-seasons have given us at least one player to think about heading into the following year. This year, there are candidates to do just that again.
In 2007, Coco Crisp was the centerfielder of choice in Boston. While Jacoby Ellsbury had come on to the scene late, there was certainly skepticism as to if he would be able to stand the pressure of the playoffs. Ellsbury came through, even though there are some that would argue it was largely the failure of Crisp down the stretch. Still, the at-bats he had during the post-season were what allowed Boston the flexibility to deal Crisp this past off-season.
Crisp had been marginalized, and it was proven out that the younger and cheaper Ellsbury could perform the same job. While Crisp stayed on in 2008 and shared the duties, it was only a matter of time before the job was solely Ellsbury’s to have. That has brought a great benefit to fantasy owners that watched it unfold in the fall of 2007.
Last season, there is no doubt that the biggest story was the emergence of pitching in Tampa. David Price may have come up at the end of September, but few could have anticipated the impact he would have in the playoffs. His role in shutting down the Red Sox in the ALCS caused fantasy owners to salivate at the possibility of him in the 2009 rotation.
For Price, 2009 did not unfold the way he would have wanted. After starting the season in the minors, Price was roughed up in a majority of his road outings before settling into a groove during the season’s final month. His youth alone will have owners ready to draft him again in 2010. It is much more likely that he spends a full season in the rotation and could very well experience a similar growth path to the one taken by Ellsbury.
This year, the focus for a player that could break through needs to start in Colorado. The key player that many will look at initially is Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez provided many owners a late-season boost based on some strong August production in terms of power and speed. Still, his numbers were already receiving attention and he is likely to be on many sleeper lists heading in to 2010.
There are a few other names still that did not receive enough recognition over the course of the season that could do so with some strong playoff work. Pitchers Jorge De La Rosa and Ubaldo Jimenez could do just that. De La Rosa was one of the best in the National League from July through September, but his ownership never reflected the strong numbers he posted. While the Rockies will be without him for the Division Series, look for him should the team move on.
Jimenez had strong strikeout totals in 2009, closing in 200 before the season came to an end. He drew game one against the Phillies and would likely get another start in game four or five. Jimenez has the ability to take the next step, and a national stage would do wonders to show those outside of the fantasy world what he can bring to the table.
In Minnesota, there are plenty of unsung heroes that could see their draft stock bettered with a good series against New York. Look first at Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer came off an injury-plagued 2008 season to be an effective replacement for Minnesota after the injury to Justin Morneau. Even with 32 home runs in 2009, he was not able to gain universal acceptance as an option at the corners or in the outfield. Watch out for him.
Do not forget about Francisco Liriano as well. He was a complete disappointment this season, but a good run in the playoffs would make owners forget many of their reasons for cutting him.
It is possible that these players are around only briefly, but there are some options even in New York. Phil Hughes has made a name for himself in the bullpen, but he could make enough of a stance to move in to the rotation. In St. Louis, keep an eye on young outfielder Colby Rasmus. He spent the season with the Cardinals but only hit .251. His power numbers were decent, as he posted 16 home runs and 52 RBI. Rasmus was up and down, having a good month followed by a bad one. The playoffs are a time to shine, and he will have the opportunity.
The fact is, the playoffs make names for players. Those that can show success on the biggest of stages can garner expanded roles in the seasons that follow. Keep an eye out for these players, as they look to gain the same fame taken by those before them.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Fantasy Baseball: Roaming The Outfield
What better to do after a long season than prepare for 2010? It will happen in little bits, and most people will start to get the itch once their fantasy football seasons have come to a close. For those that have started 0-4, that might be sooner rather than later. Until that time, though, it does not hurt to be fed bits of information that help owners understand what happened in 2009.
The outfield, like every other position, taught us several relevant pieces of information. Much of this should be carried forward next year. The question is only how much we account for in our strategies.
Let us review three major pieces.
Deep on Power. Power is probably the biggest misconception when it comes the position overall. The big hitters are not sitting as much in left and right field anymore. Most teams are plugging them in at DH or at the corner infield positions. In fact, 2009 saw not a single outfielder hit 40 home runs. Not even Adam Dunn cracked the plateau. That does not mean that home run hitters do not come out of the outfield.
In reality, there is more power to go around than you might think. If your ultimate goal for this position is to achieve balance, you can do so without reaching to grab a top-10 outfielder too early in your draft. Why is that? Simple. Forty-one outfielders hit 20 or more home runs in 2009. The same number drove in more than 70 runs with 20 driving in 90 or more.
Now, will you be able to identify all of these players in your draft? Not likely. Several were called up mid-season. Others are going to be afterthoughts. This space gave J.D. Drew a hard time, but he somehow managed to hit 24 home runs and drive in 68. If he were not making $14 million, those would be respectable numbers. Drew spent the majority of the season unowned. There are reasons for it, but his production is case in point on the outfield’s power depth.
The Speed Game. More than power, it is important to come to the outfield for speed. Ten outfielders had more than 30 steals this season, with three cracking the 60 mark. Showing the depth, 37 outfielders had more than 20 steals. The better part is that the higher-end numbers could have been even better if not for some injuries.
Nyjer Morgan would have had more than 50 himself had he not been injured in the final weeks of the season. His total was cut short at 42. B.J. Upton would likely have broken 50 as well if not for missing a part of April and forgetting how to hit in many other months. Not to mention the losses of Coco Crisp and Grady Sizemore in terms of overall speed.
Speed is always an area that conflicts fantasy owners. No one has a solid foundation as to how much is enough in order to compete or win a category. Many have found themselves punting on it in past years. With the change in offensive philosophies and the end to mammoth home run numbers, steals are going to become a larger part to the game. The outfield is an opportune place to make a move in a sometimes neglected category.
Certainly, the more balanced players are going to be drafted higher. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Nelson Cruz, and Justin Upton all hit more than 20 home runs and stole 20 bases. Players like Shin-Soo Choo and, to a lesser degree, Upton, are going to be available later in drafts to provide boosts in multiple categories. They will not harm you in terms of power, but bring an added dimension.
Players such as this are also littered on the fringe just outside the 20-20 club. Franklin Gutierrez spent much of the season just off the radar, but ended with a .286 average to go with 18 steals and 16 home runs. He could be the next mover. Andrew McCutchen is already being hyped by some to continue his pace into 2010, and Carlos Gonzalez should be set to join the ranks as well.
The point is, you no longer have to grab a Jacoby Ellsbury to compete in steals. The total position is changing, and the balanced attack is more available going forward. Look to complement your team with one or two 20-20 type players to account for not grabbing the Carl Crawford’s.
Sleeper City. There is no term more over-used in any fantasy sport than sleeper. Once a player is talked about enough, he is no longer a sleeper. Cruz in 2009 was not a sleeper. Everyone was talking him up. That does not mean that some do not exist, it just means that you are not likely to find them as late in drafts as most sleepers are drafted. Clear as mud?
A guy like Adam Lind was a sleeper in 2009. There was so much more focus on Travis Snider that Lind was missed by some. Michael Cuddyer and, to a degree, Adam Jones both fit that bill as well. This past season gave us plenty to think about when it comes to developing sleeper lists for next year.
McCutchen will be at the top of many lists, and he should be. After the Morgan trade, McCutchen was given the keys to the car and told to have fun. The Pirates gave him the green light to steal at will, expecting that he would learn on the job. He generated moderate power and produced an average over .280. Not bad numbers. Do not forget him next year.
Others include Gonzalez and Julio Borbon. Fantasy owners were given a taste of Borbon (get it?) in the latter portion of 2009, and how the Rangers approach and deal with Marlon Byrd will largely determine the extent of Borbon’s value. Still, he stole 19 bases and could be a nice leadoff hitter based on his ability to make contact and get on base. There are a few other names to keep in mind as well. Do not forget the performances of Nolan Reimold in Baltimore and Cody Ross in Florida. Both should be on draft boards next year.
Overall, the outfield saw similar trends to other positions, but it is always going to provide more depth. When plotting out strategies for next season, look to what happened here in 2009 for some indications as to where you can gamble. Just because you did not get the power or speed you wanted out of one position does not mean it is unavailable. It just is you may have to look in other places to find it.
The outfield, like every other position, taught us several relevant pieces of information. Much of this should be carried forward next year. The question is only how much we account for in our strategies.
Let us review three major pieces.
Deep on Power. Power is probably the biggest misconception when it comes the position overall. The big hitters are not sitting as much in left and right field anymore. Most teams are plugging them in at DH or at the corner infield positions. In fact, 2009 saw not a single outfielder hit 40 home runs. Not even Adam Dunn cracked the plateau. That does not mean that home run hitters do not come out of the outfield.
In reality, there is more power to go around than you might think. If your ultimate goal for this position is to achieve balance, you can do so without reaching to grab a top-10 outfielder too early in your draft. Why is that? Simple. Forty-one outfielders hit 20 or more home runs in 2009. The same number drove in more than 70 runs with 20 driving in 90 or more.
Now, will you be able to identify all of these players in your draft? Not likely. Several were called up mid-season. Others are going to be afterthoughts. This space gave J.D. Drew a hard time, but he somehow managed to hit 24 home runs and drive in 68. If he were not making $14 million, those would be respectable numbers. Drew spent the majority of the season unowned. There are reasons for it, but his production is case in point on the outfield’s power depth.
The Speed Game. More than power, it is important to come to the outfield for speed. Ten outfielders had more than 30 steals this season, with three cracking the 60 mark. Showing the depth, 37 outfielders had more than 20 steals. The better part is that the higher-end numbers could have been even better if not for some injuries.
Nyjer Morgan would have had more than 50 himself had he not been injured in the final weeks of the season. His total was cut short at 42. B.J. Upton would likely have broken 50 as well if not for missing a part of April and forgetting how to hit in many other months. Not to mention the losses of Coco Crisp and Grady Sizemore in terms of overall speed.
Speed is always an area that conflicts fantasy owners. No one has a solid foundation as to how much is enough in order to compete or win a category. Many have found themselves punting on it in past years. With the change in offensive philosophies and the end to mammoth home run numbers, steals are going to become a larger part to the game. The outfield is an opportune place to make a move in a sometimes neglected category.
Certainly, the more balanced players are going to be drafted higher. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Nelson Cruz, and Justin Upton all hit more than 20 home runs and stole 20 bases. Players like Shin-Soo Choo and, to a lesser degree, Upton, are going to be available later in drafts to provide boosts in multiple categories. They will not harm you in terms of power, but bring an added dimension.
Players such as this are also littered on the fringe just outside the 20-20 club. Franklin Gutierrez spent much of the season just off the radar, but ended with a .286 average to go with 18 steals and 16 home runs. He could be the next mover. Andrew McCutchen is already being hyped by some to continue his pace into 2010, and Carlos Gonzalez should be set to join the ranks as well.
The point is, you no longer have to grab a Jacoby Ellsbury to compete in steals. The total position is changing, and the balanced attack is more available going forward. Look to complement your team with one or two 20-20 type players to account for not grabbing the Carl Crawford’s.
Sleeper City. There is no term more over-used in any fantasy sport than sleeper. Once a player is talked about enough, he is no longer a sleeper. Cruz in 2009 was not a sleeper. Everyone was talking him up. That does not mean that some do not exist, it just means that you are not likely to find them as late in drafts as most sleepers are drafted. Clear as mud?
A guy like Adam Lind was a sleeper in 2009. There was so much more focus on Travis Snider that Lind was missed by some. Michael Cuddyer and, to a degree, Adam Jones both fit that bill as well. This past season gave us plenty to think about when it comes to developing sleeper lists for next year.
McCutchen will be at the top of many lists, and he should be. After the Morgan trade, McCutchen was given the keys to the car and told to have fun. The Pirates gave him the green light to steal at will, expecting that he would learn on the job. He generated moderate power and produced an average over .280. Not bad numbers. Do not forget him next year.
Others include Gonzalez and Julio Borbon. Fantasy owners were given a taste of Borbon (get it?) in the latter portion of 2009, and how the Rangers approach and deal with Marlon Byrd will largely determine the extent of Borbon’s value. Still, he stole 19 bases and could be a nice leadoff hitter based on his ability to make contact and get on base. There are a few other names to keep in mind as well. Do not forget the performances of Nolan Reimold in Baltimore and Cody Ross in Florida. Both should be on draft boards next year.
Overall, the outfield saw similar trends to other positions, but it is always going to provide more depth. When plotting out strategies for next season, look to what happened here in 2009 for some indications as to where you can gamble. Just because you did not get the power or speed you wanted out of one position does not mean it is unavailable. It just is you may have to look in other places to find it.
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